Davutoğlu’s visit to Germany and the EU’s immigration problem

Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu's recent visit to Germany is probably one of the most critical recent visits for both Turkey-Germany relations and Turkey-EU relations.

The terrorist attack in France will reawaken Europe's immigration problem, while all European counties, particularly Germany and France, will have to revisit their immigration policies. During a speech to the European Parliament in Strasbourg in November, Pope Francis described Europe as "somewhat elderly and haggard." He said that Europe was "slowly losing its own soul," likening the continent to a "grandmother, no longer fertile and vibrant." The pope also remarked in the same speech, "We cannot allow the Mediterranean to become a vast cemetery," referring to the deaths of thousands of migrants who drowned while trying to cross the Mediterranean.

The population of Northern Europe in particular is getting older and the burden of this ageing population has so far been handled with a young immigrant population coming from Eastern Europe and Asia. Northern Europe, particularly Germany, has used these young immigrants as a cheap labor force.

Small businesses and Small and Medium Sized Enterprises (SMEs), which have been launched by Turks in Germany particularly in the last decade, have succeeded in becoming influential in the German economy. It is known that there are currently more than 140,000 Turkish enterprises across Europe, with half of them being in Germany.

These businesses provide 640,000 jobs across Europe, with 330,000 of them being in Germany. Currently, there are 8 million immigrants in Germany and 3 million of them are Turkish immigrants. This means that Turkish businesses employ a 10th of the total population of Turkish immigrants. Turkish enterprises have a turnover of 35 billion euros in Germany. Moreover, the consumption expenditure of the Turkish immigrant population in Western Europe is around 25 billion euros. As the figures suggest, today the 3 million Turkish immigrants living in Germany constitute the most dynamic segment of the German economy. Because, Turks were the main elements of the labor migration to Europe that started in the early 1960s and Turkish workers have been the most stable part of the foreign labor flow that started in this period.

Today, who establishes and runs the aforementioned SMEs in Germany are the second and third generation children of the first generation workers who migrated to Germany in the 1960s. In this context, when we look at the profit rate trend of the German industry as of the 1950s, there is a relative increase in the industrial profitability in two historical periods: The first one coincides with the mid-1960s, in which immigrant workers' cheap and intensive labor prevailed.

The second period, in which the German industry's profit rates rose, is the early 1990s when Germany reunified with East Germany. Here, we can put forth a basic hypothesis as follows: Today, the German mainstream media's xenophobia, which inclines toward neo-fascism, and its hostility especially toward Turks and Muslims, does not have an economic rationale; it also means shooting itself in the foot.

According to estimations, 6 million people will retire in Germany by 2025 and the working population problem will increase in a number of fields, including security systems and labor markets after the 2030s.

Experts say that in the 2050s, one out of every three people will be over 65 and Germany's young population will fall short of satisfying the country's social requirements. In parallel with this, the balance in the social security system will be disrupted, which will result in the collapse of funding in health and maintenance costs.

According to estimations, Germany's population will decrease by 17 million and drop to 65 million by 2060, corresponding to 20 percent. Almost all political parties, with the exception of far-right ones, economists and industrial circles agree that there is no other alternative for Germany to curb the problems that are associated with an ageing and declining population, other than attracting qualified immigrants to the country, and that it should make radical amendments in its power politics.

Today, however, Germany overlooks this reality, jeopardizing both its own future and the future of the whole EU. The Turkish workers who migrated to Europe in the 1960s and 1970s constituted the unqualified labor force of Germany. They experienced a great maladaptation. However, today the situation is quite different, as Turkey and other eastern countries have a qualified and intense workforce. If the EU fails to activate this workforce and limits the free circulation of labor, it will deepen the crisis it is currently experiencing. Furthermore, if it withdraws into itself, starting with Germany, and begins applying anti-immigrant policies, this will not only have economic costs, it will also nourish neo-fascism and will sow the seeds of a "clash of civilizations" that will justify the actors who conducted the Paris attack. Thus, terrorism will achieve its objectives. Therefore, Germany should formally oppose such neo-fascist movements as Patriotic Europeans Against the Islamization of the West (PEGIDA) that nourish Islamophobia. It is indisputable that this is a humanitarian necessity, but this is also the sole way for the European economy to overcome the crisis, starting with Germany.

So, Davutoğlu's visit is crucial. This visit does not simply mean that the prime minister of a country visited another country. It also means that the prime minister of the Republic of Turkey visited Turkish citizens who work in Germany, with the majority of them acquiring German citizenship. If we consider that the number of Turkish citizens in Germany is more than the populations of many European countries, it would be difficult to say that Davutoğlu visited a foreign country in demographic terms.